This year there will be 5 to 10 films nominated for Best Picture.  A film must get 5% of the number 1 votes to qualify. Click here to  read the rules announcement. This makes it more confusing to predict the nominees, but join Flack as he predicts the possibilities.

Since the nominations have not been announced yet, I’ll focus on the Best Picture predictions.  I have not seen all the films I’ll be talking about, but based on predictions from such resources as Entertainment Weekly, Empire Magazine, the New York Times, my own movie knowledge, and help from other people, I will do my best.

So far I think there are 3 obvious front runners: The Descendants, War Horse, and The Artist.  I cannot see the Descendants, but I did see War Horse and The Artist.  War Horse is one of my favorite films of the year, but The Artist is pretty good too. Hugo and The Help also have good chances. Predicting the next batch of films is a bit trickier.  The way you can tell which are the 5 front runners are for Best Picture when there are more than 5 movies nominated is by comparing them with the movies also nominated for Best Director. This a bit hard obviously because we don’t know which movies will be nominated for Best Direcor so I guess I’ll just have to get those as well.  I’m guessing the nominees for Best Director will be Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist), Steven Spielberg (War Horse), Alexander Payne (The Descendants), Martin Scorsese (Hugo), and Tate Taylor (The Help).  If there are any more than 5 nominated for Best Picture, I’m guessing they will be The Tree of Life, Midnight in Paris, and Moneyball. If there are 10, the last 2 would probably be blockbusters, like Harry Potter or dramas that got mixed reviews, like The Ides of March.

The Golden Globes can sometimes make predicting the nominees a little easier but only one movie (Slumdog Millionare) in the last seven years has been both the Best Picture winner for the Globes and the Oscars. Also for the Globes there is Best Drama and Best Comedy or Musical instead of one Best Picture like the Oscars. This year it didn’t help much either but  as many had predicted The Descendants won Best Drama and The Artist won Best Comedy or Musical. Although War Horse hasn’t fared so well in the awards season I am guessing that the Academy will find it hard to ignore the movie’s emotional epicness and Spielbergian story.

The Help is likely to have Viola Davis win Best Actress and Octvaia Spencer win Best Supporting Actress. Meryl Streep, however could beat Davis and for Best Actor George Clooney for The Descendants is likely to beat Brad Pitt for Moneyball and  Jean Dujardin for The Artist. I think that War Horse will also win for Best Cinematography, Musical Score, Adapted Screenplay, and Director as well as Picture. It will probably not win or even be nominated for any of it’s actors but in the past Titanic and The Lord of the Ring: The Return of the King (2 of the 3 movies to win 11 Oscars, which is more than any other) didn’t win in any of the acting categories. The 3rd movie was Ben-Hur, which won Best Actor for Charlton Heston and Best Supporting Actor for Hugh Griffith.

I am expecting War Horse to win but things might change. Almost 8 months ago I thought War Horse and The Tree of Life would be the two frontrunners and then in September I thought it would be War Horse against J. Edgar. See, things change. But will The Descendants, with it’s acclaimed script and applauded acting beat War Horse. Or could it be The Artist with it’s unique premise and magical music?

I think Billy Crystal will be a good host because he’s good in Monster’s Inc (Mike) and The Princess Bride (Miracle Max).  Many people thought last year’s show with Anne Hathaway and James Franco was horrible but I thought they were just  okay. I hope that this year the show can mix funny jokes, silly spoofs, celebrity cameos, great guests, and terrific hosting to excellent effect. If they can they will have succeeded at creating an enjoyable show.

Now I will list 8 movies. I’ve seen all of them except The Descendants and I have put them in order from most likely to win to least likely to win.

And the nominees will probably be…

Here are the top 5 no doubt about it nominees:

1. War Horse: Chance: I think this is the frontrunner. Why: The Academy loves epics and this is just that. Steven Spielberg is likely to win his third Best director award and second Best Picture award for this war adventure film. Other Possible Nominations: Best Director  (Steven Spielberg), Adapted Screenplay, Original Score, Costumes, Editing, Art Direction, and possibly a few others.
Possible Total: 7

2. The Artist: Chance: I think is tied with The Descendants as the second most likely film to win. Why: Fantastic, fun, greatly acted, superbly directed, and sad. This movie is very entertaining and a good bet. Other Possible Nominations:Best Director (Micheal Hazanvicius), Actor (Jean Dujardin), Supporting Actress (Berenice Bejo),Original Screenplay, Original Score, Costumes, Editing, Art Direction, Editing, and possibly a few others.
Possible Total: 10

3. The Descendants: Chance: I think this is tied with The Artist as the  second most likely film to win. Why: This George Clooney movie has been favored by many critics. The Academy usually prefers epic dramas rather than independent ones like this but the movie has gotten great reviews so I think it’s still a strong contender. Other Possible Nominations: Best Director (Alexander Payne), Actor (George Clooney), Supporting Actress (Shailene Woodley), Cinematogaphy, and possibly a few others.
Possible Total: 5

4. The Help: Chance: I think this movie probably won’t win but will definitely be nominated. Why: With a great cast and an inspiring story, the movie is a definite nomination. In terms of winning however  it’s chances are rather slim. Other Possible Nominations: Best Director (Tate Taylor), Actress (Viola Davis), Supporting Actress(Octavia Spencer), Supporting Actress (Jessica Chaistan), Original Score, Original Song, and possibly a few others.
Possible Total: 7

5. Hugo: Chance: I think this movie will be nominated but not win. Why: Superbly directed and terrifically acted, the film has a good chance. Even though I highly doubt it will win it has gotten stronger buzz after Martin Scorsese won Best Director at the Golden Globes. Other Possible Nominations: Best Director (Martin Scorsese), Visual Effects, Original Score, Costume Design, Cinematography, and possibly a few others.
Possible Total: 6

I’m guessing this year there will be 3 more extra nominees:6. Midnight in Paris: Chance: I think this movie will be nominated but not win. Why: Woody Allen’s “comeback” film has gotten strong reviews. I disagree with many others that is a frontrunner and I’m betting Tate Taylor (for The Help) will beat Allen for a  Best Director nomination. But with a smart script and creative cast this movie will definitely get nominated. Other possible nominations: Original Screenplay, Best Original Score, and possible a few others.
Possible Total:3

7. The Tree of Life: Chance: I think this movie will be nominated but not win.  Why: The winner of the Cannes Palm D’Or Award, the film has slightly lost it’s momentum from a definite front runner to being a possible possibility. Still Terence Malick could be a possible Best Director nominee and the Visual Effects could get a nod.  Other possible nominations: Best Visual Effects and possibly a few others.  Possible Total: 2

8. Moneyball: Chance: I think this film will be nominated but not win. Why:  Brad Pitt will be no doubt about it be nominated for Best Actor.  And the director Bennett Miller could be a surprise nominee. The script and Jonah Hill are also likely. Other possible nominations: Best Actor (Brad Pitt), Best Supporting Actor (Jonah Hill), Best Adapted Screenplay, and possibly a few others.
Possible Total: 4

I doubt there will be any other nominees for Best Picture, so I’m not going to list any more. If there are though I’m guessing they would probably be one of the following:  Bridesmaids, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, The Ides of March, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, or the Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.

The final verdict:  So far the race has been narrowed down to 3 top movies, although Hugo and The Help are good options too.  The top 3 are in my order: War Horse, The Artist, and The Descendants.

I’ll be back to talk about the nominees (possibly with Flick), after they are announced on Tuesday by Melissa Leo and Colin Firth. In the meantime go buy the amazing  book, The Academy Awards®: The Complete Unofficial History — Revised and Up-to-date. It tells you all the winners from 1927 to 2010. Also I cannot wait to watch Wings, the first movie ever to win Best Picture at the Oscars. You can get it on Netflix. The book Oscar Fever is also good but it is different than the other one because it is more of behind the scenes history of the Oscars. I can’t wait until February 26 (the show) but January 24 comes first (nominations announcement.) If you’re impatient go to the website to watch the show’s hilarious trailer and don’t forget to catch up on watching all the actual movies.

Let’s start with the action film. Based on on Herge’s French comic book series, The Adventures of Tintin could have been titled Indiana Jones in 3-D, digitally animated and based on a book from another country. Tintin, an intrepid reporter is on the case of a mystery. Red Rackham, a long dead pirate’s ship’s model is found by Tintin in a market. But Tintin is not the only one is interested in the model. The game is afoot. Jamie Bell, Daniel Craig, and Andy Serkis will be playing motion capture characters. In case you haven’t heard of motion capture here is a quick definition: it’s a way of making CG animation look more real. The actors wear suits with little balls that look like golf balls. The animators animate the characters before hand so that they are ready. Special computers read the suits and the characters on the computers move the same way the actors do. When on screen the characters move more realistically. I’ve read a few of the books including the three the film is based on which are The Crab with the Golden Claws, The Secret of the Unicorn and Red Rackhams Treasure. Although Spielberg has never directed a fully CG film it’s no surprise that the animation looks great because Peter Jackson who directed The Lord of the Rings trilogy and King Kong is producing and Andy Serkis, the master of Mocap acting is playing Captain Haddock.  Serkis has collaborated with Jackson many times before including on The Lord of the Rings trilogy and King Kong. And then there’s the 3-D. I will definitely be seeing the film in this format. Before you continue reading watch the official Tintin trailer.

Originally I was going to break down the two trailers but that would take the fun out of having your own opinion. My breakdown of the trailer could become persuasive and after all this a news article not persuasive text. The action in the trailer is so intense that you literally forget where you are and are instantly sucked into Tinin’s world. John William’s score sounds like Raiders of the Lost Ark’s and I mean this as a good thing. The score is very orchestral and rhythmic. The last fifteen seconds of the trailer are the most jaw dropping because of the quick editing. There is not much shown here but action however I am expecting quirky characters because the book is full of them.

The war epic, War Horse is certainly epic. According to the news Spielberg has chosen to replace gritty war violence with subtle yet disturbing takes on war. I guess you could say it’s not exactly original: based on the book, which became a Broadway play, but that doesn’t mean Spielberg can’t strike gold. In fact I predict it will be nominated for the Oscar nomination of all Oscar nominations: Best Picture.  The book is sad, horrifying and brilliant all at the same time. The play also fits those descriptions. However the best part about the play is the way Joey, the war horse is presented: when he is young , he is made out of fabric and other material and when he is older he is made out of the same materials and is large, actors stood inside it at all times. The plot is simple, yet complex. Albert, a farm boy, lives with his to the point mother (in the play) and drunken father.  Not long after they get Joey “the horse”, he is sent off to the war, becoming a war horse.  Joey goes from owner to owner. By the end he has seen everything. Before you continue reading watch the official War Horse trailer.The opening shots of the trailer hint at very sad,somber themes. John William’s score is melancholy, yet by listening to samples of other songs from the film on iTunes there are definitely lighter tunes probably played during scenes with Albert riding Joey. The war scenes showed are very realistic yet as I said before there is no gore. Another notable key feature is the cinematography which is aided by the lighting. Take the last shot for example: Joey looks out onto the sunset. The sky is bright orange and the camera is still. The camera doesn’t do much here but the lighting is extraordinary. If you want mouth watering cinematography look at Joey jumping onto a tank and then jumping onto the muddy ground. If the cinematography wasn’t filmed in this way the shot could easily have become a waste of film.

Now that you’ve read the news go see the movies. Tintin was released on the 21st and War Horse is coming out tomorrow. You can also look forward to my reviews of at least one of these films. Happy Holidays!

Flack interviews Flick about Chandani.

Flick interviews Flack about Chandani.

Flick interviews Maddie about Chandani.

Flick interviews Ava about Chandani.

Flick interviews Flack about Nocturna.

Flick interviews Amelia? about Nocturna.

Flack interviews Cathy about Summer Wars.

Flack interviews Grace about Summer Wars.

Flick interviews Tina about the Crocodiles.

Flick interviews Flack about the Crocodiles.

Flick interviews Eli about EEP!

Flick interviews Flack about EEP!

Golden Globe Awards – Sunday, January 16, 2011 at 8pm (EST)

Oscar’s Nominees will be announced on January 25, 2011 at 5:30 a.m.
83rd Oscar’s will premiere on Sunday, February 27, 2011 at 8pm. The front runners for the best picture are The Social Network and The Kings Speech. We hope Toy Story 3 will win best picture (even though it probably won’t).

Movies we have watched and enjoyed lately: TRON,TRON Legacy, Harry Potter 4, Big Fish, Harry Potter 7 Part 1, Chitty Chitty Bang Bang. and The Adventures Robin Hood (1938 starring Errol Flynn).

This Tim Burton exhibition (closed April 26, 2010) shows drawings from his past and a few shorts and commercials he made. There is also a room devoted to the real movie props from his films. For example things from BeetleJuice, Planet of the Apes, Ed Wood, Batman, Edward Scissorhands, and more. It does not have things from Alice in Wonderland because the exhibition came out before the film did. In the gift shop they have a book of Alice in Wonderland for sale.

I liked learning about Tim Burton more even though I already knew a lot about him and had already seen and loved Charlie and the Chocolate Factory and Alice in Wonderland and parts of Edward Scissorhands.

I liked the movie aritfacts in this exhibit. I especially liked the Batman masks and the Edward Scissorhand life size model. I also liked the screen with the Tim Burton commercials. There was one with a guy who had watches and he started kicking people in the faces and also one where people took their heads off and they had skeleton heads. I liked his sculptures alot. I liked them because I liked learning the history of how he made commercials and learning about Tim Burton himself.

I think this photo is from the opening of the exhibition. Johnny Depp, Helena Bonham Carter, Tim Burton, and Danny DeVito pose for this photo. Someday soon I would love to meet them in person.

This years’ Oscar nominations were surprising; The Secret of Kells, UP, Princess and the Frog, Coraline, and the one I hope wins, Fantastic Mr. Fox are the animation nominations.

Some other good nominations are Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince for best cinematography. Star Trek for makeup, sound editing, and visual effects. Meryl Streep was nominated for Julie and Julia for best actress in a leading role. George Clooney got a nomination for best actor in a leading role in Up in the Air. He was also Fantastic Mr. Fox in Fantastic Mr. Fox. Up in the Air was also nominated for best picture, best director, two actresses in a supporting role, and adapted screen play. UP also got nominations in addition to best animated film for best original screnplay, original score, sound editing and most surprising best picture! Avatar got nominations for best picture, director, art direction, cinematography, film editing, original score, sound editing, sound mixing, and visual effects. Sherlock Holmes got nominated for art direction and original score.

I wish I could see Julie & Julia, Up in the Air, Avatar, Star Trek, Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince, and most of all Sherlock Holmes. I think they are appropriate for me except my parents do not agree.

George Lucas has a new book called George Lucas’s Blockbusting. All about movies and their trivia. Listen to the podcast on Fresh Air NPR here with David Bianculli and George Lucas.

I can’t wait for the movie, Fantastic Mr. Fox directed by Wes Anderson. I think it is cool to know how they made the film using miniatures. Read the article in today’s New York Times Arts & Leisure section; Animal Wrangling in Miniature to learn more about how Wes Anderson adapted Roald Dahl’s book for the movie opening, November 13, 2009.

See trailers and learn more about Roald Dahl on the Apple website.